As mentioned in our previous article on China Labor Market Outlook, numbers for China seem to be encouraging and improving for this 2024, further evidenced by last year GDP growth of 5.2%, which accounts for one third of global GDP.

While several macroeconomic indicators are pointing in a promising direction, there are also other areas that are still cause for concern, shaping both consumer behavior and enterprise strategies. Indeed, a negative consumer and business “sentiment” still permeate in China, which is influenced by a variety of factors: the collapse in property transactions and a 5% decline in exports, zero growth in fixed asset investment by privately-owned companies, and double-digit youth unemployment.

Although lower sentiment levels increased savings rate to 31.7% in 2023, which represents a significant reservoir of potential spending power should consumer confidence recover, consumer sentiment in China reflects a blend of caution and resilience. Based on McKinsey report, in general consumers are spending more conservatively and they are not necessarily opting for cheaper brands. They are seeking more value through different channels or discounts and promotions. This is evidenced by a significant portion of consumers (47%) changing retailers for lower prices rather than opting for cheaper brands (19%).

Looking at the tourism industry, while international travel has rebounded significantly, reaching 77% of pre-COVID levels by early 2024, spending patterns indicate a shift towards experiences over mere transactions. However, even though buying abroad is not that attractive compared to the past (price attractiveness), Chinese travelers spend more than pre-covid as shopping is still a substantial part of the travelling experience:

Japan: +117%

Singapore: +40%

Europe: +20%

(these data are related to 2023 in comparison with the consumption in 2019)

The automotive sector represents another promising area of growth in consumption. While overall auto sales grew by a 17%, during the first two months of the year, electric vehicles outpaced this number with a 37% surge, highlighting changes in consumer preference for greener alternatives. In fact, EVs now represent 35.6 percent of China’s total automotive market.

Thus, even though there is still a negative sentiment from consumers and enterprises, number shows that in 2024 retail sales grew of +5%, with goods contributing a 4.6% rise. Remarkably, foodservice sales leapt by 12.5 percent, indicating a robust recovery in hospitality sectors.

 

Future Trends: Charting the Course Forward

Looking ahead, key trends emerge that will shape consumer behavior and market dynamics. Consumers are increasingly seeking self-insurance, purpose-driven brands, and a sense of belonging. They are becoming savvier about what they buy and have high expectations on and willingness to pay for meaningful ESG attributes, e.g. authenticity and transparency, brand’s social responsibility and reputation. This calls for brands to establish clear identities and foster communities around their products, while maintaining a delicate balance between brand value and trendiness, which is pivotal in navigating the evolving retail landscape.

 

HR Implications: Navigating Change and Uncertainty

In the realm of HR, the shifting retail and overall market landscape and consumers spending behaviors necessitate strategic adaptation. Disruptive supply chain issues, currency fluctuations, and a shifting regional landscape necessitates cost-cutting measures, for a more streamlined and efficient operations. Considering this, businesses have adopted a more conservative outlook and measures. Hiring freezes and digital transformation initiatives are on the rise, with 40% and 34% of companies respectively prioritizing these areas. Moreover, restructuring efforts, often involving dual roles managed by single individuals, are becoming commonplace.

 

As China’s retail sector charts a course through turbulent waters, adaptation and agility emerge as the cornerstones of success. By embracing change, fostering resilient consumer relationships, and strategically navigating HR implications, retailers can carve a path towards sustainable success in China’s evolving retail landscape.

 

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Sources:

Event: Retail Insights: Navigating Recent Uncertainties Among China Consumers: Brand Building Versus Short Term Actions, Italian Chamber of Commerce

2023 McKinsey China Consumer Report, McKinsey & Company

Report: Mainland China and Hong Kong Luxury Market: Unlock infinite growth possibilities and sustainable value of luxurious lifestyle, PWC, April 2024

Article: Consumer market overcomes COVID impact, China Daily, April 2024 https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/29/WS662efa39a31082fc043c4923.html

 

Authors

Alessandra Yin, Senior Consultant APAC

Valentina Meng, Recruitment Consultant & China Social Media Manager